Mortgage loans 2025: a confirmed recovery in a fragmented market
The Belgian mortgage market continued to recover in 2025. Despite the challenging economic backdrop, BNP Paribas Fortis recorded a 14% increase in mortgage loan volumes compared to 2024. This increase reflects a gradual return of buyers to the residential property market, though not yet to pre-pandemic levels. The property market continues to be shaped by structural changes, with housing affordability remaining a significant challenge.
BNP Paribas Fortis_RealEstate_ENG.docx
DOCX 5.3 MB
In 2025, the real estate market recovery coincided with a significant increase in the average amounts borrowed for mortgage loans intended for house purchases, reaching €272,000—a rise of 18%. Conversely, loans for apartment acquisitions saw a 7% year-on-year decline, averaging €218,500.
The sharp rise in property prices is also significantly reshaping market access conditions for young first-time buyers. These increases do not reflect a change in borrowers' behaviour, but rather a necessary adaptation to persistently high property prices.
“The recovery in mortgage lending continued in 2025, but it took place in a structurally more demanding market,” notes Fatema Henry, credit expert at BNP Paribas Fortis. “Households need to borrow more to access properties comparable to those available five years ago.”
Above all, mortgage lending remains a means of making residential projects a reality rather than a way of managing existing debt. Analysis of loan purposes confirms this, with almost six out of ten loans being granted for property purchases and one in five for renovations. By contrast, refinancing accounts for barely 6% of activity.
Marked regional disparities
Housing affordability is strongly influenced by geography. For a purchase combined with renovation, the average amount borrowed exceeds €355,000 in Brussels, which is more than €55,000 higher than in Flanders and almost €110,000 higher than in Wallonia. In terms of transaction volumes, the distribution remains stable: 55% in Flanders, 12% in Brussels, and 33% in Wallonia. The latter recorded an increase of 2% compared to 2024.
Recent adjustments to registration duties have had contrasting effects: an increase in first-time buyers in Wallonia, stability in Flanders, and a decline in Brussels. Nevertheless, 49% of loans granted by BNP Paribas Fortis in 2025 for a purchase or a purchase with renovation involved first-time buyers, which is a high figure in the current context.
Three client profiles, three housing access realities
Analysis by customer segment highlights differentiated dynamics.
- Contrary to some commonly held beliefs, Generation Z (people under 30) has not abandoned the market. In 2025, 30% of mortgage loans were granted to clients under the age of 30. Extending the scope to under-35s, one in two loans concerns this age group. However, their profile has evolved; they borrow significant amounts (an average of €235,300) over longer periods, with higher loan-to-value ratios (79% on average), while still adhering to prudential recommendations. For many of them, access to home ownership involves purchasing energy-inefficient properties that will be renovated gradually. Consequently, 20% of loans are intended for purchase and renovation purposes.
- At the other end of the spectrum, borrowers aged over 55 now account for just 6% of the total, around half the proportion seen in 2024. Those aged 55 and over often have greater accumulated wealth and tend to borrow smaller amounts over shorter periods with significantly lower loan-to-value ratios (€202,000 over 111 months with an average loan-to-value ratio of 36%), which is often linked to the use of bullet loans1. Baby boomers are also less risk-averse, with 22% opting for a variable interest rate. These figures reflect a stronger wealth position, which shields this generation more effectively from current market pressures.
- Between these two generations, single borrowers and single-parent families (with a single borrower) account for 34% of loans granted, an increase on 2024. Given their situation, single borrowers have a higher repayment burden (39%), but they contribute more equity than those under 30. The latter have a loan-to-value ratio of 70% and borrow an average of €184,000 over 258 months. This increase confirms the bank’s societal role in supporting those who are more vulnerable financially, in a context of rising living costs.
In 2025, prudence remains at the heart of the Belgian mortgage lending model. More than 90% of clients opted for a fixed interest rate, a choice aimed at protecting households’ purchasing power in the face of interest rate uncertainty.
The average loan-to-value ratio is 66%, the average loan duration is 238 months, and the debt-to-income ratio remains contained at 40%. These figures demonstrate that the increase in lending has not compromised borrowers’ financial stability.
“Mortgage lending plays its role as both a shock absorber and a springboard towards home ownership. However, banks must remain vigilant in the face of longer borrowing periods and rising debt levels among young households,” says Laurent Loncke, Head of Retail Banking at BNP Paribas Fortis. “Affordability is a collective challenge, not an individual responsibility.”
Energy performance: now a key criterion
Energy performance is becoming a decisive factor in borrowing capacity, and its impact on housing affordability continues to grow. BNP Paribas Fortis has observed an average difference of €65,000 in the amount borrowed for highly energy-efficient and energy-inefficient homes respectively. Young households often enter the market via properties in need of renovation, which are generally more affordable at purchase but require a greater overall financial effort. Last year, 35% of loans granted to Generation Z were for homes with an E, F or G energy label, the least energy-efficient categories.
“Sustainability is no longer a peripheral issue; it directly affects access to home ownership,” says Greet Van Criekingen, a credit expert at BNP Paribas Fortis. “For young households, buying often means choosing between a lower entry price and a higher renovation cost. Financing the energy transition of housing is not only a climate issue; it is also a central affordability challenge.”
What can we expect in 2026? Koen De Leus, Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Fortis, remains cautious: “Tensions in the bond market are pushing mortgage rates upwards, with a risk of an increase of 10 to 20 basis points in market rates in 2026. Alongside this expected rise in interest rates, I anticipate a 3.1% increase in housing prices this year.”
Against a backdrop of rising housing prices, energy transition requirements and evolving public support measures, BNP Paribas Fortis is faced with the threefold challenge of reconciling financial affordability, the sustainable renovation of housing stock and the budgetary stability of households.
1 A bullet loan is a mortgage loan that allows the borrower to pay only the interest throughout the entire term of the loan. The repayment of the principal is made in a single lump sum at the end of the loan.
